An illustrative probabilistic capture zone for a well at a hypothetical site - The pink area represents the true 180-day capture zone. The probabilistic capture zone is more “dispersed” than the real capture zone due to data uncertainty in transmissivity. Red represents the area that will be certainly captured in 180 days, despite the data uncertainty. The white represents the area that is unlikely captured (with a probability of less than 5%). The other colors represent areas that may be captured. IGW is lived linked to the streams, lakes, drains, wetlands, and wells and the associated attributes throughout the state of Michigan. The GIS features are automatically converted to IGW conceptual features

In this project, we propose an innovative and cost-effective approach to delineate wellhead protection areas in Michigan. In particular, we propose to develop a probabilistic methodology and an interactive software tool that will enable statewide, risk-based delineation using the Groundwater Inventory and Mapping (GWIM) database. The new approach will provide an ensemble of likely capture zone realizations that explicitly account for data uncertainty, a mean capture zone, and a capture probability denoting the likelihood that water from a potential contamination source will enter the well. The proposed probabilistic delineation has important implications for environmental policy on source protection, risk management, and sampling design. We will demonstrate the effectiveness of the new approach with a number of site-specific applications.

Publications:

• Li, S.G. and Q. Liu, "A real-time, computational steering environment for integrated groundwater modeling". Recommended for publication, under revision, Ground Water.

• Li, S.G., Q. Liu, and S. Afshari, "An Object-Oriented Hierarchical Patch Dynamics Paradigm (HPDP) for Groundwater Modeling". Recommended for publication, under revision, Environmental Modeling and Software.

• Li, S.G. and Q. Liu, "Interactive Ground Water (IGW)", Environmental Modeling and Software. Vol. 20, No. 12 ( In Press). Download PDF

• Li, S.G., Q. Liu, Interactive Ground Water (IGW): An Innovative Digital Laboratory For Groundwater Education and Research, COMPUTER APPLICATIONS IN ENGINEERING EDUCATION. Vol. 11(4):179~202, 2003. Download PDF

Shu-Guang Li, http://www.egr.msu.edu/~lishug Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering A133 Engineering Research Complex Michigan State University East Lansing, MI 48824-1226 Phone: (517)432-1929 Fax: (517)335-0250 E-mail: lishug@egr.msu.edu