ESSAY QUESTIONS:  due on Monday, 2 February 98 at the beginning of class.

Question 1.

There are two bus companies (Bill's Buses and Terri’s Transit) in a small city which provide equivalent service to all neighborhoods and all patrons.  The only way the patrons living in a specific neighborhood, and who are uniformly distributed across it, can get bus service (for a trip out of the neighborhood to another one and/or across town) is to go to a company's "bus stop" which could be located anywhere on the neighborhood street system.  Patrons can travel on the streets or "cut across" blocks (if they desire) to get to a bus stop.  For a specified neighborhood, assume that the street system is a grid with nine north-south streets (1st through 9th Streets) and five east-west avenues (Avenues A through E) streets, counting the boundary streets/avenues of the neighborhood, and that all streets/avenues are equally spaced.  In this neighborhood, there are two bus stops, one from each company (which must be located on a street).  Patrons will take the bus which belongs to whichever company's bus stop they get to first.  (Otherwise, patrons are absolutely ambivalent to which bus they take—i.e., service and cost are identical.)  The driving, and only, principle for each bus company is to capture as much of the neighborhood ridership as it can (and thereby maximize their income).

Currently, the city has mandated that each company must provide one bus stop for this neighborhood.  They are to be located opposite each other in the center of "short side" of the neighborhood (one is on 1st Street and the other is on 9th).  Thus, each company currently captures one-half of the riders, which is sufficient to keep them financially solvent (although they would prefer to capture more of the market).

1-A. The new transit planner rules that the two bus companies can now move their stops (they still
        can have only one) to wherever they choose within the neighborhood—but each has only one
        opportunity to move.  If Terri goes first, what is her best move (or should she not move)?
        What is Bill's best response to Terri’s decision?

1-B. If (after the moves in 1-A were accomplished) the transit planner then  rules that the two
        companies can continue to move if they wish to, what will happen?  Note that if they move,
        they move in alternating order (Terri, then Bill, then Terri, and so on).

1-C. On the other hand, if the city's transit planner wants to minimize the total system access cost
        (walk times to the bus stop) for all of the patrons (as a group), where would he/she require
        the bus stops to be located?  Which bus company would lose money if the planner was able
        to do this?
 
Some simple graphics illustrating the locations of the bus stops in the neighborhood are strongly encouraged to be included in your paper.

Question 2.

One of the problems associated with evaluating a statistical model involves the determination of whether it truly explains a cause and effect relationship between variables—i.e., variation in the independent variable(s) actually causes the variation in the dependent variable.  The alternative is that, although a statistical relationship exists between the variables (correlation), true cause and effect has not been established.  The problem is that correlation can be (mis)interpreted as causation.

2-A. Find an example of a study1,2 where a simple correlation may have been mis-interpreted as
        causation and explain why the findings are (or may be) flawed.

2-B. Explain why this sort of problem is important when considering traffic/transportation-related
        issues and illustrate your point with at least two, substantially different, examples.

The example(s) in 2-A must be real and sources must be cited (e.g., an article in a journal, a newspaper report).  The examples in both parts A and B must also clearly include some sort of analysis of "numbers" (i.e., not entirely qualitative).  Finally, if the article cited (for 2-A) is less than 10 pages in length, it must copied in its entirety and attached to your submission.  If it's more than 10 pages long, then copy the introduction, discussion/conclusions, and any section which is germane to this assignment.

Notes: 1. The example that you use for question 2-A must be identified in some publication (e.g.,
               journal or newspaper article) and the citation can be no earlier than 1 January 1997
               although the example itself could date further back than that (e.g., you might find an
               example in today's newspaper that is based on a study done in 1993).

            2. The article does not have to be transportation related
 

 Some other comments, veiled threats, and....

There are several things you should think about as you do this assignment.

First, don't put it off.  The questions cannot be done by the average person in a couple of hours or at the last minute.  You should start looking for examples today—there will be little sympathy for the person who comes in a week before this project is due and says "I can't find an example."  If you are having difficulty, you should come in for help a lot sooner than that.

Second, please note that if you have any questions regarding this assignment you should make sure that you ask them "early on."  After you have received a poor grade, it is inappropriate to argue that "I didn't know what you wanted."  If you have any doubts about what I want in this assignment, ask (me)!

Third, no substantive collaboration between students is permitted on this assignment.  Very similar answers to questions will be examined carefully.  For example, the papers of all students who cite the same studies will be carefully scrutinized.

Finally, you should note that each of these questions is worth approximately 10% of your final grade.  A one- or two-page, night-before-it's-due type paper is simply not going to cut it.  Zero points (literally, as in none) have been given in the past on similar assignments and they will be again if necessary—make sure your submittal is not one of those.  If you put forward no or very little effort, I have absolutely no problem in rewarding that effort in kind.

You may also wish to check out the sample grade sheet for the first assignment on the following page.
 

 CE 448                                                                      student’s name:_________________
Transportation Planning (Spring 1998)                            total score:________/125
Essay questions grade sheet/check list                             percentage:________

General+Style and format—25 points total (_____).

1.  logical development throughout?
2.  rationale for answers clear?
3.  typewritten or word-processed?
4.  double-spaced, style okay?
5.  quotes, material, or other references duly cited?
6.  submission stapled/fastened appropriately?
7.  spelling, other similar errors?     is "it's" or "its" ever mis-used?  if yes, -5
8. "data" incorrectly used in singular form?  If yes, -5

Question 1.  Terri and Bill—50 points total (_____)

1-A:   1. all aspects of problem considered?
          2. problem redefined at all (shouldn't be)?
          3. clear where Bill's and Terri’s moves are and why?
          4. graphics logical? clear?

1-B:   5. fundamental differences in two situations picked up?
          6. clear where and why each bus stop now located?
          7. are bus stops in correct type of location?
          8. graphics logical?  clear?

1-C: 11. clear what the changes in problem are?
       12. clear where and why stops are located?
       13. clear who loses money?

Question 2.  causation versus correlation—50 points total (_____)

1. good example?
2. explanation of why the findings are (or may be) flawed?
3. appropriate (real) references?
4. explain why this sort of problem is important in traffic/transportation-related issues?
5. point illustrated with at least two realistic examples?
6. copy of article attached?